Many conversations with experts and an AI have led me to write this article. What does the Flexpack community think about this? We welcome comments from all sides! ‘Business as usual’ is a thing of the past, right? Is a shift from rigid to flexible on the horizon?
1 | Classification of the Regulation
With the Packaging & Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR), the EU has adopted a regulation that not only stipulates recycling quotas but also sets absolute waste reduction targets for the first time (-5% by 2030, -10% by 2035, -15% by 2040 compared to 2018). For plastics, there are also recycled content requirements and a mandatory design-for-recycling criterion (‘recyclable on an industrial scale’).
These requirements have a direct impact on material selection, packaging format and the supply chain. Products that are currently still packaged in heavy, rigid containers are particularly affected, as weight and volume will in future be directly included in a manufacturer’s waste account.
2 | Why flexible packaging is beneficial
2.1 Less mass = less waste
A stand-up pouch often requires 90% less material than a glass jar of the same capacity. For brands, this means that without selling a single portion less, the amount of waste generated is significantly reduced – exactly the goal set by the PPWR.
2.2 Recyclability can be achieved through technical solutions
Modern mono-PE or mono-PP films with ultra-thin barriers (e.g. MDO-PE + SiOx coatings) can offer the same product safety as multi-layer films. At the same time, they meet the new EU definition of ‘highly recyclable’. This means that manufacturers do not have to compromise on product protection or regulatory compliance.
2.3 The cycle closes
From 2030, the PPWR quotas will require plastic-based food packaging to contain up to 35% post-consumer recycled content. Flexible packaging is no longer lagging behind in this respect: multi-layer coex films already integrate PCR-PE or PCR-PP in the middle layer without compromising sensor properties or migration.
3 | Market outlook until 2030
| Year | Flexible (USD bn) | Rigid (plastic) (USD bn) | Flex share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 63.2 | 70.7 | 47 % |
| 2028 | 73.1 | 75.6 | 49 % |
| 2030 | 80.7 | 79.1 | 50.5 % |
In 2030, for the first time, more than half of all money spent in the European food packaging market will be invested in flexible formats.
4 | PPWR deadlines & specific levers
- Reduction in packaging volume: Packaging volume is to be reduced by 5% by 2030, 10% by 2035 and 15% by 2040.
- Circular economy: Introduction of recyclability and minimum recycled content.
- Reuse: By 2030, at least 20% of plastic packaging in the food sector should be reusable, rising to 40% by 2040.
- Extended producer responsibility: Manufacturers will accompany packaging until the end of its life cycle and bear the costs of collection, sorting and recycling.
- Introduction and expansion of deposit and return systems: By 2029, at least 90% of plastic bottles should end up in deposit and return systems.
- Transparency through labelling: Harmonised standards for labelling are to be developed by 2026.
We also provide detailed information on the PPWR and its deadlines in our Inno-Talk NEWS: Basics of the PPWR – InnoTalk and the webinar series on the PPWR.
5 | Estimates Practical examples (2024 → 2030)
| Segment | Status 2024 | Forecast 2030 | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sauces / soups | 30 % pouch | > 55 % pouch | Weight parity on the shelf, plus refill concepts in deposit-return (DRS) systems. |
| Pet food (wet) | 45 % pouch | ~ 70 % pouch | Aluminium cans lose share because of their high CO₂ footprint and mandatory recycled-content quotas. |
| Baby-food squeeze pouches | 80 % pouch | ≈ 90 % pouch | Glass jars remain a niche for premium organic segments. |
| Dry products (rice, coffee) | Carton + PE inner bag | Mono-material pouch > 60 % | Paper mono-pouches with EVOH coating become the standard. |
6 | What businesses should do now
- Portfolio review 2025/26 Consider replacing every rigid packaging option with a flexible alternative: Can the carbon footprint be reduced by ≥ 40%?
- Design freeze until 2027 New structures must be classified by RecyClass or CEFLEX-D4ACE now.
- Secure PCR material Food-grade PCR-PP/PE is becoming scarce – long-term supply agreements are worth their weight in gold.
- Make LCA a standard process The PPWR calls for ‘the best environmental performance per application’. Without reliable LCA data, subsequent conversions will be expensive.
- Stakeholder communication The ‘rigid-to-flex shift’ provides a tangible narrative that investors, retailers and consumers can immediately understand.
7 | key message
The PPWR is forcing manufacturers to become lighter, more recyclable and more recyclable. Flexible plastic packaging – whether as a mono-PE/PP pouch or paper-based composite – often meets these requirements most efficiently. Those who consistently switch to flexible formats between 2025 and 2030 will not only reduce material and emissions, but also gain a tangible compliance and cost advantage when the 2030 deadline comes into effect.
The future belongs to lightweight, well-designed FlexPack solutions – for the environment, for retailers and ultimately for economic success.
bibliography
- European Union (2025): Regulation (EU) 2025/40 of the European Parliament and of the Council on packaging and packaging waste (PPWR). Adopted on 22 January 2025, published in the Official Journal of the EU on 11 February 2025. Available via EUR-Lex.
- Reloop Platform (2024): Summary of the PPWR – Overview of the most important articles and deadlines. Background paper, Brussels.
- Reuse: By 2030, at least 20% of plastic packaging in the food sector should be reusable, rising to 40% by 2040.
- Extended producer responsibility: The manufacturer accompanies the packaging until the end of its life cycle and bears the costs of collection, sorting and recycling.
- ifeu – Institute for Energy and Environmental Research Heidelberg gGmbH (2021): Life cycle analysis of stand-up pouches compared to glass and metal packaging (study commissioned by the FPE). Heidelberg.
- Packaging World Insights (2024): Trend Report – The Rise of Stand-Up Pouches in European Retail. Chicago.
- Euromonitor International (2024): Trends in packaged foods in Western Europe 2024. London.
- TOMRA Systems ASA (2025): Recycling rates and collection systems for plastic packaging in Europe in 2025. White paper, Asker.
- CEFLEX / RecyClass (2023): Leitlinien für die Gestaltung recyclingfähiger flexibler Verpackungen auf Polyolefinbasis. Brüssel.
- Own research & extrapolation (2025): CAGR calculations for 2025–2030 based on market values from sources 3 & 4.
- Internal market analysis (Innoform, 2025): Segment forecasts for sauces, pet food, baby food and dry products based on customer surveys and trade data Q1/2025.
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