What the 43rd Inno‑Talk really reveals about capacities, limits and opportunities
This article summarises the key statements of the Inno-Talk and places them in a technical context. The aim is to clearly work out the opportunities and limits for practical application in the flexpack industry.
1. Classification: complement, not replacement
Chemical recycling is often discussed as a “game changer”; in reality, it complements existing systems. Getting this classification right is crucial for developing realistic strategies for packaging design and material use.
A central point right at the start:
Chemical recycling is not a replacement for mechanical recycling, but a complementary technology.
Mechanical recycling remains:
- industrially established (for >50 years)
- efficient for clean, single-type streams
- still developing technologically
Chemical recycling, by contrast, addresses:
- heavily contaminated or mixed waste
- multilayer structures
- applications with high quality requirements (e.g. food contact)
For practice, this means:
The future is a hybrid system – not a technological paradigm shift.
2. Capacities: the current state is often overestimated
Public perception often suggests a rapid ramp-up of chemical recycling capacities. The volumes actually available today, however, are still very limited.
The analysis by Conversio reveals a sobering reality:
- Total recycling in Germany: approx. 2.5 million t of plastic
- Share of chemical recycling (2024): only ~0.4%
Even if individual new plants bring major progress (e.g. +25 kt from a single facility), the overall level remains low.
Many market players significantly overestimate the volume available today.
3. Technological reality: pyrolysis dominates
From a technical perspective, no great diversity has established itself at industrial scale so far. Instead, one dominant technology is emerging.
At industrial scale, the following is currently most relevant:
- Pyrolysis (incl. “oiling”) → dominant technology
- Gasification → predominantly at the research stage
- Solvolysis → suitable only for certain polymers (not PO)
Typical process chain:
- Pre-sorting & preparation
- Pyrolysis (~600 °C)
- Pyrolysis oil
- Upgrading (hydrotreating)
- Steam cracker → ethylene/propylene
- Polymerisation → “virgin-like” material
The end result is chemically identical polymers – hence suitable for food contact.
4. The underestimated factor: process losses
The efficiency of chemical recycling processes is often overestimated in the debate. In fact, considerable material and energy losses occur along the process chain.
A particularly important technical aspect from the talk:
- Typical yield (example calculation):
- Input: 170 kt
- Output (relevant recyclate share): ~77 kt
Reasons:
- Energy demand (pyrolysis gas is combusted)
- Losses in upgrading
- Losses in the steam cracker
Chemical recycling is not a “100% loop” – it involves significant material losses.
This is decisive for:
- CO₂ footprints
- economic viability
- regulatory accounting
5. PPWR and the recyclate gap: the real problem
Regulatory requirements (PPWR minimum recycled content) are strongly driving demand for recyclates. At the same time, it is becoming clear that the available volumes will not be sufficient in the medium term.
Probably the most important insight from the entire Inno-Talk:
Demand (Germany only):
- ~157 kt food-grade recyclate (non-PET, 2030)
Expected supply (realistic scenario):
- ~77 kt
Result: only approx. 50% coverage
Even in the optimistic scenario, a gap remains.
Applied to Europe:
- Demand: ~640 kt
- structural undersupply likely
6. Consequences for practice in the flexpack industry
For packaging developers and brand owners, this results in direct strategic implications. Design decisions and material choice are particularly relevant.
6.1 Design remains decisive
Even with chemical recycling, the quality of the input material remains a limiting factor. Good design decisions improve both mechanical and chemical recycling.
Chemical recycling does not replace good packaging design:
- Contaminants (PVC, PVdC) critical
- Oxygen-containing polymers → lower yield
- Metal/paper → process losses
“Garbage in – garbage out” still applies.
6.2 Mass balance remains the key
Physically tracing the chemically recycled share is technically impossible. This is why the accounting-based allocation plays a central role.
Since the material is mixed in the steam cracker:
- physical tracing not possible
- allocation via mass balance (e.g. ISCC+)
From a regulatory standpoint:
- already recognised for PET (SUPD)
- for PPWR: not yet fully defined, but foreseeable
→ Uncertainty remains here – a critical point for advising your customers.
6.3 Economics: market mechanisms are not yet in play
The economic reality currently remains a major hurdle for broad adoption. Without regulatory or financial incentives, little market momentum develops.
Typical situation:
- chemically recycled polymers = price premium
- demand exists, but:
- brand owners hesitant
- lack of willingness to pay
Countermeasures:
- EPR incentives (e.g. ~€200/t in some countries)
- regulatory pressure (PPWR)
- image & ESG drivers
7. Industrial progress: the SABIC example
Some major industrial players are already actively driving implementation. These examples show that the technology is fundamentally market-ready.
SABIC illustrates the current industrial state of the art:
- pilot/demonstration plants (~20 kt)
- integration into existing steam crackers (up to >2 million t)
- applications:
- food packaging (snack packaging, BOPP)
- cosmetics
- medical devices
The system works technologically – scaling is the problem.
Conclusion
The debate around chemical recycling needs to be conducted on a more fact-based footing. The Inno‑Talk clearly shows where the industry actually stands today.
Chemical recycling is a necessary building block of the circular economy – but far from being the sole solution.
The biggest challenges lie not in the chemistry, but in:
- scaling capacities
- economic implementation
- regulatory clarity
- and the interplay with mechanical recycling
Those who act flexibly today and understand both worlds will benefit.
Watch the recording now:
Upcoming INNO-Talks
Retortable mono-material laminates – Barrier is key
Friday, 18. September 2026 – Start 13:30
